Diversified mining major BHP Group expects demand for raw materials to remain strong despite global policy uncertainty, with CEO Mike Henry highlighting resilient growth in China and India and an increasing focus on critical minerals.

“While economies around the world continue to navigate policy uncertainty, China and India again demonstrated resilient economic and commodity demand growth,” Henry said  on Tuesday on the miner’s earnings call.

China’s economy outperformed expectations in the first half of 2025, with robust exports and steady demand from infrastructure and electrification sectors offsetting weakness in property, he stated. “China’s economic growth is expected to remain resilient, even as the pace moderates slightly in the second half as the boost from ‘pulled forward’ exports unwinds and new tariffs take effect.” Still, Beijing has “many policy levers at its disposal” to support domestic growth.

India, meanwhile, remained “the fastest-growing major economy and a bright spot for commodity demand”, Henry noted.

He said the outlook for resources was underpinned by structural shifts, including population growth, urbanisation, and the energy transition. “The world is going to need a lot more steelmaking materials, a lot more copper, and a lot more potash,” he said.

BHP cautioned that “macroeconomic volatility may increase in the near term as the world adjusts to the evolving global economic order”.

The miner highlighted a modest upgrade from the International Monetary Fund, which now projects global growth of 3% in calendar year 2025, up from April’s 2.8% forecast, although below the 3.3% pace in 2024.

Steelmaking raw materials, BHP said in its commodities outlook accompanying its results, are entering “an era of adjustment characterised by the crosscurrents of China’s crude steel plateau maturing, India and Southeast Asia’s steel capacity growth, and shifting supply driven by new market entrants and a depleting resource base”. 

BHP expects copper demand to remain robust, citing China’s stronger-than-expected consumption in 2025, while iron-ore demand is being supported by Chinese infrastructure spending and resilient manufacturing activity. 

The miner was more cautious on coal, noting that steelmaking coal prices have softened on oversupply, though it flagged that policy shifts in China and new blast furnace capacity in Asia could lend support.

The Melbourne-based company marked its 140th anniversary last week, a milestone Henry used to underline its strategy of focusing on large, low-cost assets in commodities with long-term demand growth. “Our commodities have large markets, resilient demand and steep cost curves,” he said.

BHP flagged challenges at its Jansen potash project in Canada, with Henry conceding first production for Stage 1 had been pushed back. “I am disappointed. Clearly, this is not where we want to be,” he said, citing inflation and lower productivity. The miner has also deferred Stage 2 by two years to free up capital for nearer-term projects.

In Western Australia, BHP pointed to ongoing cost leadership at its iron-ore operations, where production is set to grow to 305-million tonnes a year by 2028, with unit costs expected to fall below $17.50/t.

BHP is also pressing ahead with growth projects in copper, including optimising Escondida in Chile, expanding its South Australian operations, and advancing the Vicuña project in Argentina, described as a “multi-decade copper opportunity".

At Escondida in Chile, the world’s largest copper mine, the company is reshaping its growth programme to boost output by 400 000 t between 2027 and 2031.

In South Australia, Henry reaffirmed BHP’s aspiration to double copper production but stressed the need for regulatory certainty and water security. “Efficient permitting and approvals are fundamentally important to getting major projects off the ground,” he said, adding the company supports the state’s Northern Water Project to underpin expansion.

Henry reported that about 45% of BHP’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) came from copper in the 2025 financial year.

Meanwhile, underlying Ebitda came in at $26-billion with a 53% margin, while attributable profit was $10.2-billion, down 26% on last year. Shareholders will receive a final dividend of $0.60 a share. 

On spending, BHP plans to invest $11-billion a year in capital and exploration over the next two years, before easing to about $10-billion a year between fiscal 2028 and 2030.

Henry said the company is also making headway on sustainability goals, including cutting operational greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030 and signing contracts for ammonia-fuelled bulk carriers to reduce shipping emissions.

“The global economic outlook is mixed,” Henry said, noting growth is expected to ease to around 3% amid shifting trade policies. “Yet demand for commodities remains strong, particularly in China and India.”